Most people who leave prison are arrested again. The ones who get support are the exception that proves it can change.
A person walks out with a bus ticket, a few dollars, and a record that follows them into every job application and rental form. The first year is the hardest, and the first two weeks are the deadliest.
Updated October 2026. Every figure links to its source below.
What changes the odds
The risk falls every year someone stays out: arrests drop from 43% in the first year to 22% in the tenth. Education, a paycheck, a visit, a stable address. Each one moves the odds, and none of them is out of reach with the right person walking alongside.
lower odds of returning to crime for people who took classes in prison5
saved for every $1 spent on education in prison6
less likely to return to prison within two years when employed after release7
North Carolina, people released in 2016
lower risk of a new felony conviction for people who got even one visit in prison8
Minnesota, 16,420 people released 2003–2007
They need someone to call in the first 72 hours, a mentor who has walked out those same doors, and donors who cover the ID, the deposit, the work boots. RISEaid walks with people through it: they do the work, and we connect them with the resources to get there.
Need help yourself? Call or text 888-860-RISE. In an emergency call 911; for a mental health crisis call or text 988.
Questions people ask
What percentage of people released from prison go back?
In the largest federal study, 82% of people released from state prisons in 24 states in 2008 were arrested again within 10 years, and 43% were arrested in their first year out. In a separate 34-state study, 46% were back in prison within 5 years.
When is the risk of reoffending highest?
In the first year. Arrests fell from 43% in year one to 22% in year ten for people released in 2008. The first two weeks also carry a 40 times higher risk of dying from an opioid overdose.
What reduces recidivism?
Education in prison (43% lower odds of reoffending in a RAND meta-analysis), a job after release (20% less likely to return to prison within two years in North Carolina), visits while inside, and stable housing all lower the odds.
Sources
Figures were read on each source in October 2026. Where data is older, preliminary, from one state, or from a small study, the figure says so.
- 1.U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 24 States in 2008: A 10-Year Follow-Up Period (2008–2018)
- 2.American Journal of Public Health (Ranapurwala et al., 2018). Opioid Overdose Mortality Among Former North Carolina Inmates: 2000–2015
- 3.National Institute of Justice. National Inventory of the Collateral Consequences of Conviction
- 4.Prison Policy Initiative. Nowhere to Go: Homelessness among formerly incarcerated people
- 5.RAND Corporation (Davis et al., 2013), via the National Criminal Justice Reference Service. Evaluating the Effectiveness of Correctional Education: A Meta-Analysis
- 6.RAND Corporation (Lois M. Davis, 2014). Using Education to Stop the Prison Revolving Door
- 7.North Carolina Department of Commerce (Berger-Gross, 2022). The Impact of Post-Release Employment on Recidivism in North Carolina
- 8.Minnesota Department of Corrections (2011). The Effects of Prison Visitation on Offender Recidivism